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Thursday, October 1, 2009

Stimulus', Unemployment Numbers and Proposal to Alleviate

There is an interesting article released today by the Associated Press regarding what other countries are doing regarding their high unemployment numbers, whether it is propping them up or other creative measures, and the countries current numbers. You can actually check the article through this link, below is the summary and my proposal follows:
GERMANY -- Unemployment 7.7 percent in July from an annual rate of 7.3 percent in 2008, but down from 8.4 percent in 2007. Employment has been kept in check so far by government financial support for workers put on shorter hours in order to avoid mass layoffs.
FRANCE -- Short-work arrangements and government incentives such as exempting payroll taxes for some workers. The unemployment rate rose to 9.2 percent in July from 7.8 in 2008. It is expected to hit 10 percent by the end of the year.
BRITAIN -- Hit a nearly 13-year high of 7.9 percent in July. The number of people out of work looks on course to pass the three million mark next year. However, the number losing their jobs has fallen from spring highs.
SPAIN -- Spain has gone from being a European model for growth, creating more than a third of all new euro-zone jobs over the past decade, to having the region's highest unemployment rate. This stems mainly from the collapse of a construction boom and a credit-fueled consumer spending spree over the past two years.
IRELAND -- The story is similar in Ireland, where unemployment has surged from 4.6 percent in 2007 to 6 percent in 2008 and 13.3 percent in July.
KOSOVO -- The Balkan nation is one of the poorest in Europe, and not a member of the OECD club. With stagnant growth, its unemployment rate was 46.3 percent in 2007, according to the International Labor Organization. That may include the so-called "gray economy," in which people are paid under the table.
JAPAN -- Japan's unemployment rate actually dipped to 5.5 percent in August after reaching 5.7 percent in July, the highest level in Japan's post-World War II era, amid mounting job and wage cuts. Still, the total number of jobless in August rose 32.7 percent from a year earlier to 3.61 million. The number of temporary workers has surged in recent years, reaching around a third of the work force in the world's No. 2 economy. The plight of these workers, who with little job security have born the brunt of the recession, has stirred emotions in Japan.
CHINA -- The official urban unemployment rate was 4.3 percent for the three months ended June 30 but the actual level could be more than double that because the government system ignores millions of migrant workers and employees who are furloughed by state companies but not recorded as laid off. As of June 30, there were 9 million registered unemployed people in an urban work force of 210 million, according to a spokesman for the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Yin Chengji.
As many as 30 million migrants are believed to have lost jobs in export-oriented factories in late 2008, government officials said. Some are believed to have found work on construction projects financed by Beijing's stimulus but no figures have been reported.
INDIA -- The picture is even less clear in India where the government does an official employment survey only about once every five years. Ninety percent of the work force is in the so-called informal sector.
MEXICO -- Mexico's unemployment rate rose to 6.28 percent in August, the highest rate in more than 13 years, according to The National Statistics Institute. The jobless rate among the country's roughly 45 million workers was up from 4.2 percent in August 2008. President Felipe Calderon has announced reforms to ease red tape and lower costs for investors in public works projects to foster job growth. The government also started paying one-third of the salaries of automotive workers to curb layoffs at the plants.
BRAZIL -- Unemployment in Brazil reached 8.1 percent in August, remaining stable over the last two months. The figure shows a drop in the jobless rate from its peak of 9 percent in March. Brazil emerged from recession in the second quarter of this year and analysts are now predicting the economy will expand slightly in 2009.
SOUTH AFRICA -- The unemployment rate in South Africa hovered at 23.6 percent in this year's second quarter, according to the country's statistics office. That was up slightly from 23.1 percent in the April-June quarter of 2008, as South Africa is mired in its first recession since 1992.
The African continent as a whole was initially unscathed by the financial turmoil that roiled Europe and the United States. But the collapse of Western consumer demand has meant Africans are selling less of the commodities on which many of their economies depend.
In the past couple months, a few programs were introduced to stimulate the economy. Everyone's heard about the Cash for Clunkers program; however, this program is not as hard hitting as programs like the first time home buyer program. Here is why. Although the Cash for Clunkers did show an increase of automotive sales, falsely inflating economic numbers for a couple of months, it is a program that will mainly benefit automotive manufacturing regions such as the midwest. But did it really help stimulate those areas? Not really, since all it really did was decrease high inventories of the automotive industry, which will not require permanent re-hires neither in manufacturing jobs, nor at the dealerships. In addition, the automotive industry does little or not as much in stimulating, I am sure there is an economics word for this, the automotive industries auxiliary markets. In other words, when someone buys a car, they purchase the new car and nothing more is needed, unlike the housing market. Although new home purchase incentives will also decrease numbers in home inventories, as a consumer buys a home, the new homeowner may need new appliances, furniture, maybe modifications to the house, lawn care, linens... which spurs more jobs and lasting jobs. In addition, real estate must be bandaged to help consumer confidence. Furthermore, the home inventories must be decreased and removed off bank balance sheets. However, no stimulus will be effective, unless there are new jobs created. Therefore, it was interesting to read in the above AP release that the German government subsidized lowered worker hours to reduce massive layoffs to France's short work arrangements and no payroll taxes for some workers. Anyone that has worked for a large corporation knows that when business gets tough, they "trim the fat". They eliminate those positions that are less needed and have those that are still working wearing multiple hats to keep the balance sheet and income statements in the black. Therefore, government stimulus' need to be geared toward corporations and especially small businesses in spear-heading unemployment or during these deflationary times, taking advantage of being able to pay less for government sponsored work projects. Why not? Corporations do it. For example, this is an employer's market, so employers are able to re-hire employees in vacant positions for about 3/4 the cost that was paid the last guy. In addtion, cost of goods to maybe, as another example, repair infrastructure like bridges, roads and other public works will cost much less in these times. Now, that would be a stimulus. Should take advantage of being able to do things while it's cheap, although this would add to deflationary pressures. However, I would take the lesser of two evils during these interesting times.

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