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Saturday, October 3, 2009

Shift of Wealth Eastward, South America the next Asia?

The G7 Summit this weekend is further backing a hunch I have had for a while noticing that the Asian Economies and the BRIC's are now much larger an influence on the global economy. They will help prevent the industrialized, western economies from completely falling apart with strong continued growth and with good economic policing from everyone. This is noticeable from the shift from less future G7 meetings to only G20 Summit meetings. In the 80's and 90's, it was the Emerging Tiger countries, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Now, these countries are pretty much fully developed economies with a well educated workforce, strong GDP, and the shift of manufacturing away from their countries elseware. The BRIC's are currently the Emerging Tigers, but now and a whole lot larger. Furthermore, these BRIC's are natural resource rich. You would think that China has zero natural resources, but this is not true, they are just growing that fast, although artificially bolstered growth pushed by the big pocket book of their government. Expect, eventually, what happened then to happen similarly to the BRIC's, Brazil, Russia, India and China. Also, expect more woo-ing of the "Emerged" Tigers and the BRIC's by the Industrialized west from this point onward, as this transition of wealth and power continues to shift and the importance of each other is even more apparent, preventing anyone from "flexing their muscle". Being a neighbor to these countries is an advantage for all nations, but especially the countries closest in proximity.
Therefore, it would be safe to say that Russia is following the industrialized nations since it is surrounded by pretty much nothing but the industrialized nations, and will help bolster the EC and England and vice versa. Expect continued phenomenal growth in Asia since China, now the 2nd largest economy, is surrounded by anything but still growing "like wildfire" nations and will bolster Japan and vice versa. So, this brings me to believe that South America will be the next region, where a cool name like Emerging Tigers or acronym like BRIC will be coined. As the world continues to get smaller and smaller, and as Asia keeps growing and buying everything for growth, helping a lot of economies from worsening, especially those closeset to Asia such as Australia and the Kiwi nation. Eventually, it will be the neighboring countries that will "prop up" those that need it and vice versa in this smaller world.
Hehe, let's have a little fun here, Argentina, Chile, Venezuela, Peru, Columbia, Bolivia, Paraguay, Ecuador, Guyana, French Guiana, Uruguya, Trinidad and Tobago(sorry if I missed one or two, not here to anger anyone). Let's come up with a cool acronym, but I tried and it looks like an eye chart. So, good luck and maybe it may become your claim to fame. For now, let's just call them the South American Emergers. You can probably say the same thing for the South American Emergers as people did in the 60's and 70's about the countries in Asia(probably will be another blog).
Africa is a toss up for me. Africa is resource rich, in need of better education, the leaders allow their countries to be carved up by other nations for their natural resources and the corruption often comes from the highest down, causing too much instability. I wish I could be more positive and I hope I am completely wrong, but there is still much needed work there. Until the corruption subsides and the governments get stronger, will Africa become a country most favorable for investments. Although I am a firm believer that the world cannot become better with any country or continent left behind, let's just hope that they get that uplift from their neighbors in this shrinking world.

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