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Monday, October 5, 2009

The New War: Currencies, Shift from Dollar to a Currency Basket

There was a section in an article of UK's Independent pertaining to Arab States using Spot Gold for the interim till a basket of currencies system is formed for oil contracts. They will be changing from the US Dollar to Spot Gold and eventually a basket of currencies, not good for the Dollar. Now the list goes as Brazil, Russia, India(maybe, too many close ties with US), China, Iran, the Arab States and the UN on shifting away from the US Dollar from currency reserves to now oil. Since a couple of days ago, this list has grown. More importantly, the previous listed examples are all emerging or commodity countries. The shift to gold for the interim should drive gold currencies, Australia and New Zealand up. It only takes an example of a system that is better, for everyone else to start switching over; furthermore, you can bet that there are countries playing around or calculating a "basket" of currencies. The reason a basket of currencies would be the best solution for the volatile dollar is kind of like how a diversified portfolio works for stocks and a well balanced mutual fund, the volatility is absorbed in the basket. With a collection of currencies, they will be less volatile, mathematically, since a country could possibly trade via an average value of the total basket of currency reserves and not one single currency that is subject to much volatility. How do I know in the workings of a basket of currencies? Because I practice a basket system and trade it and it is that good in smoothing the jagged edges of the currency market. It will be interesting to see if the Fed's and Geitner try to intervene in the currency markets or what economic policy will come to prevent any more exploration into shifting away from the dollar. This has to be a disturbingly growing subject being discussed in Washington. With the deflating dollar to continue(read my previous post), many shifts of power will come in near future.

2 comments:

  1. Oops forgot to add Japan to the list of countries looking to shift from Dollar to a currency basket.

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  2. Now word coming out that Russian Deputy Finance Minister, Algerian Finance Minister, Saudi Governor denying talks of shift from US Dollar. This is real interesting, because it was causing so much more volatility in the FX markets.

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